Understanding Reverse Line Movement In Sports Betting
They set it based on their goals, which can differ game-to-game. Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971. Even though you may have missed out on the best line in these cases, there may still be value in the side the “smart” money appears to be on, so it is definitely worth a closer look. The goal when following line moves is to always try to get the best of the number you are looking for, whether you are interested in wagering on the favorite or the underdog. That can be much easier said than done, though, because the opening number may be the lowest you will get on a favorite before the public hammers it and makes it too high. Oh, absolutely and if it’s a marquee game, you should expect it to change — especially if you wagered early on.
When examining moneyline odds, you can use the following benchmarks to sort out the games. Spreads and total listings include the lines set by oddsmakers as well as the actual odds for placing the bets. Any sportsbook’s NFL odds board contains lots of information. Once you know how to use it to your advantage, your betting game can really take off.
Lines that move 2 points at a time are almost always going to be due to big news regarding injuries or rest days. It would also take significantly more money to move a line for a prime time game on national TV than a random afternoon game between two small market teams. In these games the large majority of public action will be on one team, yet the line will fall to make that team less attractive.
The entire market must adjust in a short period of time, not just a few books. You might hear this referred to as “the Chiefs getting steamed” from -6 to -7. The key with steam is that you need to make sure you act quickly enough to identify the swift move and can still bet the line at the triggering sharp number.
The main thought process behind this trend is that there is a psychological tendency among the non-professional bettors to take the favorite. The spread doesn’t mean much to them, but they know that the Lakers are better than the Warriors, so they’ll put money on the Lakers regardless of the number next to them at the outset. They figure the lines must make it 50/50 upon its release, so they’ll put money on the favorite early. After gathering experts to set an initial betting line, the oddsmakers’ jobs are not close to being done.
Let’s take a deep dive into what reverse line movement is all about. That may not seem like a huge difference, but it can absolutely add up over the course of a season. Line shopping to find the best price can make a big difference for your ultimate bottom line. Colorado is still favored, but there are a few ticks of difference. On a $100 bet, the return at this book would be $76.90 if the Avalanche won. Before pulling the trigger, you decide to check the lines at another book to compare.